I don't think they're going to expect what's coming: new Vula tribe Edgic analysis for s48e4

Perhaps this is the true Complex Tribe of the season

What an interesting swap tribe New Vula is! Throughout the first 3 episodes, I wondered whether Civa or Lagi was the Complex Tribe. Both tribes had big characters but also a couple very underdeveloped characters each - Bianca and Star on Lagi and Chrissy and Charity on Civa. Ultimately I don’t think either tribe was meaningfully more complex than the other. The only thing I was certain of was that old Vula was definitely not the most complex tribe.

However, check out this new Vula tribe: 5 solidly complex and developed characters! Of course we’re down to 4 with Thomas’ departure, but still. Given that neither original Lagi nor original Civa went to Tribal Council, it makes sense that if the winner came from either of those tribes, perhaps their story wouldn’t start in earnest until a Tribal Council after a swap. Now, that doesn’t mean I’m eliminating everyone else and going all in on Joe, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Kyle, but it’s something I’ll be keeping a close eye on.

With that said, let’s move on to the individual players!

Kamilla

What an episode for Kamilla! This was a good episode for both her and Kyle, but Kamilla was really front and center. The edit basically gave us no suspense on who was going home in favor of showing us just how much she and Kyle outmaneuvered the California Girls alliance.

Now that said, it is often the case that the player that is shown to be the most strategic, or who has made the biggest move, isn’t the winner. Especially this early. Of course, one needs to only remember episode 4 of last season, which was all about showcasing a great move by Genevieve. Genevieve did not turn out to be a winner, but instead the “dragon” - a big threat to the winner, which the winner defeats on their way to winning. Other New Era players that played this role includes Jesse from season 43, Omar from 42, and Ricard from 41. Kamilla does have some dragon vibes to her edit, so I could see her playing that role this season.

Kamilla will be first in my winner rankings this week, but this is why I like giving percentages as context, which I will do in tomorrow’s winner rankings piece. In all likelihood, if I end up having Kamilla at 20% to win, that is simultaneously the single highest win equity of the 14 remaining players and also conversely means I think there’s an 80% chance she doesn’t win. So while it may sound unintuitive, at this point I can easily think Kamilla is both the most likely winner and more likely to be a late-game threat to the winner aka a “dragon” like Genevieve was.

It also bears pointing out that comparing Kamilla to Genevieve isn’t fair to Kamilla, who had a much better premiere and first 3 episodes as a whole than Genevieve. She’s much more developed than Genevieve was at this point in the season. We know her favorite movie, we know that her duo with Kyle is not just strategy but also due to a personal bond, and she had this nice personal moment during Tribal Council:

As I’ve mentioned many times in these posts, Attacking the game continues to be a central theme to the season. Not doing so is a recipe for disaster, but you also have to attack the game in a smart way to succeed. Kamilla certainly meets that description. As Kyle said in the Premiere about her: “she knows when to strike and knows when to pull back”.

And while we’re on the topic of Kyle, Kamilla and he certainly embodied the Partnerships theme well tonight. Jeff told us before the season started that partnerships would be a theme, but to be honest I haven’t incorporated that into my analysis all that much because in every season of Survivor, duos are important. This season hasn’t seemed out of the normal in that regard. However, this episode is chock full of Kamilla talking about her duo with Kyle and vice versa.

Joe

The consensus opinion throughout the Edgic community right now is that this was a great episode for Joe because of what we call getting protection from the edit: Joe was on the wrong side of the vote and was outsmarted by Kamilla and Kyle, but the edit spent a lot more time emphasizing to us that Shauhin was confidently wrong rather than Joe, despite both of them being equally wrong. The show generally wants its winners to look good and deserving of the win, so when someone is outplayed and ends up on the wrong side of the vote, but the edit mostly ignores it, that can be a clue that that player is going to win.

However, I think there’s an extra step in there that relates to Joe. Really, any player that the show wants the audience to like is going to get this type of treatment. The winner is one of those players, but not the only one. Joe has been consistently portrayed in a very positive manner. So did Joe get shielded by the edit because he’s the winner, or because they want people to like Joe in general?

The thing is, Joe is missing some things we really want to see from a winner, especially this season, given the themes. For instance, he’s not talking strategy much. His justification for keeping Kamilla is challenge-related. He scoffs at the nature of the New Era scramble. In previous episodes he’s talked about wanting to play a loyal game to the end. He’s not attacking the game, which has so far been the most present theme this season. He’s kinda like a New Era Rupert, who is a notably huge fan favorite who never won the game.

That said, I can’t write him off completely. Joe’s path to winning involves a wake up call that puts him in a more strategic-first mindset. Some including myself have opined on the possibility of a future situation where he’s unable to save Eva from going home that prompts this. Perhaps Kamilla and Kyle running circles around his California Girls alliance in this episode is the actual origin of this turnaround.

Shauhin

Oof. As someone that has a lot invested in Shauhin in a Fantasy League, this was a rough episode to watch. I mentioned above that Joe’s edit was really quiet as a way to not emphasize how wrong he was. On the other hand, the edit was merciless to Shauhin.

First we get him talking about how confident he is to have his California Girls alliance intact after the swap:

Then we see him falling for Kamilla and Kyle’s plan:

And the we see him falling for Kamilla and Kyle’s plan again:

Then he doubts the possibility that they have the advantages to overturn a 3-2 vote:

Then he insufficiently checks Kyle’s bag and concludes he doesn’t have an idol:

As I’ve said in the past, this is an edited but unscripted show. They can manipulate the story to a certain extent, but they can’t edit around the fact that Shauhin was very wrong this episode. However, what matters is how someone is portrayed when they are wrong. This was not a good look for Shauhin because the edit really drove the point home that he was very confidently wrong here.

Now what does this all mean, should we just eliminate Shauhin for looking so bad here? Well, I don’t think it’s quite that easy. I dropped him from 1st to 5th over this episode, but there is still some upside for Shauhin. A lot of that upside hinges on that first post-Tribal Council scene in the next episode. If he has a “Come to Jesus” moment or a “wake up call” and tells us in confessional that he’s going to play the game better going forward, then he’s right back in the mix. On the other hand, if he doesn’t get a confessional at all in that first scene back, or otherwise doesn’t sufficiently address how wrong he was here, then he’ll drop further. Luckily for Shauhin one of the themes of the season is that Nobody’s perfect, so our winner may make a blunder or two on the way to the win. Maybe this is Shauhin’s blunder.

Kyle

Lastly, there’s Kyle. I’ve been low on Kyle relative to the rest of the Edgic community, but even I’ve raised Kyle’s win equity quite a bit in two episodes running. One very notable thing about Kyle: in each of the first 3 episodes he’s been portrayed as a dufus. In the premiere we’re introduced to him as he erratically and recklessly loses the Camp Supplies challenge to Kevin, who won with a slow and methodical approach. In the second episode he tells us he has a callus that the rest of his tribe believes to be a wart. And in the 3rd episode he absolutely blunders socially when talking to David about his living situation.

However, a weird thing happened here: Kyle went full gamebot in this episode. It gave shades of Gabler from 43 here, who was treated very unseriously by the edit pre-merge and then was suddenly given a lot of strategic focus post-merge. Maryanne from 42 had an edit somewhat similar to that as well.

However, I still have some hesitancy in fully believing Kyle is a top contender. For one, he had a very poor premiere. And specifically our introduction to him wasn’t great. It was later into the episode than any previous New Era winner, and it lacked cohesion: he tells us he feels bad for messing up in the Marooning challenge, but we don’t even know what he messed up. He also seems to play second fiddle to Kamilla in their alliance, which isn’t often how they portray the winner.

Wrapping things up

New Vula is a tribe stuffed with contenders! While each of the other two tribes have multiple members that are either eliminated or close to it, I could see any of these 4 remaining players end up being the Sole Survivor. Tune in tomorrow to find out my winner rankings, but these 4 will be well represented throughout the top of the list.